Real Options for a Wind Farm in Wapakoneta, Ohio: Incorporating Uncertainty into Economic Feasibility Studies for Community Wind

نویسنده

  • Richard de Neufville
چکیده

This paper uses real options analysis, specifically a hybrid Monte Carlo simulation – decision tree analysis as well as a binomial tree analysis, to look at optimal decisionmaking for investment by a small community wind farm under uncertainty. In particular, the uncertainty due to forecasting of electricity prices and the potential for carbon pricing are considered. Two options are considered: a “call option” whereby a farm may be scaled up in terms of power generation capacity and a “put option” for shutting down operations are treated. It is found in general that options enhance the overall economic value for wind farm projects and such analysis can be easily implemented using common spreadsheet tools. The differences between two analytical tools are compared and it is found that they differ with respect to their suitability for different scenarios of analysis.

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Real Options for a Wind Farm in Wapakoneta, Ohio:

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تاریخ انتشار 2008